disputes / 2025-12-12

Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8?

disputed market · polymarket · uma dvm resolved YES 2025-12-12
voters
423
voted against
14
against share
3.3%
top wallet held
11.0%
total weight
23.5M
chain record #642
001e4d51cdc6e6762e8354315168ad30b7126542b6744557dddff430c94fd6dd
previous record
286d1bab3305f5175b805345c0728a2b9a626e0dc1e5e5ac546ae7c4a8ac9e36
recorded
2026-07-02T06:42:27z · request 0x5945535f4f525f4e4f5f51554552590000000000000000000000000000000000:1765245931:9f5ae0632dee368c

the judges

409 with · 14 against · correctness vs uma's own resolved price, not ground truth
#walletvote weightsharevs outcome
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50xd2a7..9f7fYES1.4M6.1%✓ with
60x95cd..29b8YES996k4.2%✓ with
70x05d1..f8c4YES935k4.0%✓ with
80x996d..aff1YES866k3.7%✓ with
90x0afc..0b38YES731k3.1%✓ with
100x487a..2538YES645k2.7%✓ with
110x6564..340cYES433k1.8%✓ with
120xbd9e..baa7YES404k1.7%✓ with
130x8548..e67eYES403k1.7%✓ with
140x326c..4205YES392k1.7%✓ with
150x66ca..225aYES365k1.6%✓ with
160xdb28..b80aYES292k1.2%✓ with
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220x2bc1..a7e7YES238k1.0%✓ with
230xfe93..9c9dYES235k1.0%✓ with
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260x6573..8efeYES205k0.9%✓ with
270x0e5f..0049YES201k0.9%✓ with
280xbec3..0ff4YES197k0.8%✓ with
290x9e30..0d35YES193k0.8%✓ with
300x2d51..6f52YES186k0.8%✓ with
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3350x2ea9..5377YES5790.0%✓ with
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3450x81b7..9330YES5470.0%✓ with
3460xcd6d..e2e0YES5460.0%✓ with
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3590xcfb3..400eYES5240.0%✓ with
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3630x0dd9..64ebYES5190.0%✓ with
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3800x20f9..4fa7YES2100.0%✓ with
3810x6673..69d4YES2060.0%✓ with
3820x71a8..61e3YES2010.0%✓ with
3830x3e1b..736aYES2000.0%✓ with
3840x7f9a..b133TOO EARLY1880.0%✗ early
3850xabac..ea56TOO EARLY1860.0%✗ early
3860xdc8d..c15dYES1860.0%✓ with
3870x7597..659aTOO EARLY1640.0%✗ early
3880x2ba1..77a7YES1560.0%✓ with
3890xba6f..e590YES1530.0%✓ with
3900xd953..20d9YES1430.0%✓ with
3910x107c..b9ebYES1330.0%✓ with
3920x95ce..7f44YES1320.0%✓ with
3930xf2a9..089dYES1300.0%✓ with
3940xb6bc..a80fYES1270.0%✓ with
3950xce0a..4e4bYES1270.0%✓ with
3960x3002..0634YES1230.0%✓ with
3970xc164..566eYES1190.0%✓ with
3980xfaa9..b062YES1020.0%✓ with
3990x2650..0846YES980.0%✓ with
4000x6703..63b2YES980.0%✓ with
4010x0e50..0160YES970.0%✓ with
4020x2204..bcb4YES970.0%✓ with
4030x95a1..2278YES960.0%✓ with
4040x3f08..941bYES960.0%✓ with
4050xfe8f..5973YES960.0%✓ with
4060xdeaa..462cYES960.0%✓ with
4070x7cd5..3b83YES960.0%✓ with
4080x21b2..4d78YES800.0%✓ with
4090xf57e..5d1bYES600.0%✓ with
4100x9304..6778YES570.0%✓ with
4110xc992..ad12YES510.0%✓ with
4120xf5ba..c6f1YES200.0%✓ with
4130xda37..81daYES100.0%✓ with
4140xbb79..fa64YES90.0%✓ with
4150x8e7e..1548YES30.0%✓ with
4160x9a0e..9c56YES10.0%✓ with
4170x265c..3a2eYES10.0%✓ with
4180xd73f..5c80YES10.0%✓ with
4190x3785..cfaeYES00.0%✓ with
4200x6f09..c527YES00.0%✓ with
4210xabcc..f962YES00.0%✓ with
4220x35ac..ecacYES00.0%✓ with
4230xe758..c853YES00.0%✓ with