thoth · uma oracle court

polymarket outsources truth to an oracle.
this records the judges.

every disputed polymarket outcome is decided by uma token-holders voting with wallets - and the payout follows their vote. per dispute: who voted, their weight, whether they matched the official outcome, and how concentrated the vote was. every record is hash-chained before it can age - it cannot be quietly rewritten.

who judges the judges? 𓂀
resolved disputes
2,657
voter wallets
4,873
window
364d
chain records
2,662
updated
2026-07-04

read this first

  1. on-chain facts only. this states how a wallet voted and whether it matched the official outcome. it never links a wallet to a real-world identity and never asserts fraud - those are conclusions this ledger does not draw.
  2. correctness is vs uma's own resolved price, not ground truth. a captured vote that resolves 'wrong' still scores 'correct' here. concentration and correctness together are the signal; neither alone is an accusation.
  3. the conflict-of-interest flag is not in this build. whether a voter also held a position in the market it ruled needs a cross-chain positions join - phase 2. the day-1 board is concentration + correctness.
  4. re-derive every number yourself. source is the public log stream of uma's votingv2 on ethereum mainnet; the aggregate json and the hash-chained ledger are downloadable below. trust the chain, not this site.

most contested disputes

all 2,657 →
ranked by voters who voted against the resolved outcome
resolvedmarketvotersagainstagainst%top walletoutcome
2026-04-17Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?123862050.1%4.4%NO
2026-04-17Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?123861849.9%4.4%NO
2025-12-06Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?149060340.5%5.5%YES
2026-05-01Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?86847054.1%8.2%YES
2026-04-29Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?54037268.9%15.5%YES
2026-06-28Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?55236966.8%17.3%NO
2026-03-30Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?64334153.0%8.8%YES
2025-12-24TikTok sale announced in 2025?78733642.7%10.7%YES
2025-10-13Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8?60032053.3%11.8%YES
2026-06-28Alien abduction at Brazil vs Scotland game in Miami?55230254.7%17.3%NO
2026-06-20Will another candidate win the 2026 New York 8th District Democratic Primary55930053.7%16.1%NO
2026-06-26Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?50128957.7%17.2%NO
2026-06-26Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?50128957.7%17.2%NO
2026-01-05Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?74928938.6%10.7%NO
2026-01-05Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?75428838.2%10.7%NO
2026-04-03Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game?62028646.1%8.9%NO
2026-01-05Will Olivia Rodrigo release an album in 2025?74928638.2%10.7%NO
2026-04-03Blast Open Rotterdam 2026: Will a player break something during a game?62028546.0%8.9%NO
2026-03-30Will Hezbollah conduct military action against Israel on March 22, 2026?64327142.1%8.8%YES
2026-01-05US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?74927036.0%10.8%NO
2026-03-14Will Khalil Mack play for New York Jets in 2026-27?58226946.2%8.9%NO
2026-06-26Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 22?50126552.9%17.2%NO
2026-06-26Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 22?50126252.3%17.2%YES
2026-06-14Will Show D be the top global Netflix show this week?55725846.3%16.3%NO
2025-08-20Will a dildo be thrown onto the court at a WNBA game on Saturday?98025726.2%2.7%NO

voter rap sheet

all 4,873 →
by weight; correctness over gradable disputes, vs uma's own resolved price
walletvotesgradedcorrectrateweight
0xfc20..1e1c23641179117099.2%4231.8M
0xd2a7..9f7f26701301128398.6%3938.5M
0xb524..3715146567567499.9%3746.6M
0x8e34..c97a147168267298.5%3287.0M
0xc60a..fea0147468467498.5%3269.0M
0x95cd..29b826811310129098.5%2732.8M
0xfec2..04a525421245121697.7%2560.1M
0x05d1..f8c426551292127498.6%2524.8M
0x0afc..0b3826931316130699.2%2096.0M
0x487a..253825211234119997.2%1667.6M
0x8548..e67e26341293122995.1%1116.3M
0x326c..420526331279126198.6%1106.7M
0x6564..340c24851212119498.5%1100.0M
0x66ca..225a26961318130398.9%1032.7M
0x996d..aff198742140195.2%835.6M
0xdb28..b80a23751120106294.8%744.6M
0xf659..d48b26821308129298.8%738.4M
0xbd9e..baa7173878377599.0%697.4M
0x20ec..56c025511242122398.5%645.4M
0xf002..bfb226781314130599.3%630.3M
0x9928..8cee26741301129599.5%618.4M
0x840b..946f24561177116599.0%607.1M
0x4863..e44f23411152113698.6%588.4M
0xb731..579025841245122898.6%559.0M
0xbec3..0ff422831174117199.7%557.0M

method

source: the public log stream of uma's votingv2 contract on ethereum mainnet, 0x004395edb43efca9885cedad51ec9faf93bd34ac, read directly over rpc. each revealed vote (VoteRevealed: voter, price, numTokens) is joined to its request's official outcome (RequestResolved: price) on (identifier, time, ancillaryData).

correctness = |vote - resolved| ≤ 0.01. weight = numTokens / 1e18. concentration = the top wallet's share of a request's revealed weight. question titles resolve deterministically from the polygon oo side of each request.

the chain: disputes are appended once each to a hash-chained ledger in resolution order; each record carries the hash of the previous one. edit any past record and every hash after it breaks.

data.json ledger.jsonl api reference votingv2 on etherscan