Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?

disputed market · polymarket · uma dvm resolved early? 2025-08-20

voters

211

voted against

against share

0.0%

top wallet held

10.2%

total weight

23.6M

chain record #183

081afd1797fcfdce8e5c81e258a9cb41af573a529d3224ac73bab3541fdb1b06

previous record

9155006afa81a7795aa1852de8069ce52a486beb12004c900c29e6a2031586e9

recorded

2026-07-02T06:42:27z · request 0x5945535f4f525f4e4f5f51554552590000000000000000000000000000000000:1755291222:91290d76b9c1fa52

the judges

211 with · 0 against · correctness vs uma's own resolved price, not ground truth

#	wallet	vote	weight	share	vs outcome
1	0xb524..3715	TOO EARLY	2.4M	10.2%	ungraded
2	0x8e34..c97a	TOO EARLY	2.1M	8.8%	ungraded
3	0xc60a..fea0	TOO EARLY	2.1M	8.7%	ungraded
4	0xfc20..1e1c	TOO EARLY	1.4M	6.0%	ungraded
5	0xd2a7..9f7f	TOO EARLY	1.4M	5.9%	ungraded
6	0x95cd..29b8	TOO EARLY	959k	4.1%	ungraded
7	0xfec2..04a5	TOO EARLY	944k	4.0%	ungraded
8	0x05d1..f8c4	TOO EARLY	899k	3.8%	ungraded
9	0x996d..aff1	TOO EARLY	895k	3.8%	ungraded
10	0x0afc..0b38	TOO EARLY	667k	2.8%	ungraded
11	0x487a..2538	TOO EARLY	621k	2.6%	ungraded
12	0x6564..340c	TOO EARLY	425k	1.8%	ungraded
13	0xdb28..b80a	TOO EARLY	387k	1.6%	ungraded
14	0x8548..e67e	TOO EARLY	381k	1.6%	ungraded
15	0xbd4b..287d	TOO EARLY	377k	1.6%	ungraded
16	0xbd9e..baa7	TOO EARLY	368k	1.6%	ungraded
17	0x326c..4205	TOO EARLY	362k	1.5%	ungraded
18	0x66ca..225a	TOO EARLY	331k	1.4%	ungraded
19	0x9b8f..ed2f	TOO EARLY	293k	1.2%	ungraded
20	0x4863..e44f	TOO EARLY	267k	1.1%	ungraded
21	0x20ec..56c0	TOO EARLY	261k	1.1%	ungraded
22	0xb731..5790	TOO EARLY	244k	1.0%	ungraded
23	0x840b..946f	TOO EARLY	243k	1.0%	ungraded
24	0xf659..d48b	TOO EARLY	240k	1.0%	ungraded
25	0xfe93..9c9d	TOO EARLY	240k	1.0%	ungraded
26	0xdc86..821a	TOO EARLY	231k	1.0%	ungraded
27	0x2bc1..a7e7	TOO EARLY	224k	0.9%	ungraded
28	0x6c31..7d98	TOO EARLY	222k	0.9%	ungraded
29	0xf002..bfb2	TOO EARLY	202k	0.9%	ungraded
30	0x6573..8efe	TOO EARLY	198k	0.8%	ungraded
31	0x9928..8cee	TOO EARLY	181k	0.8%	ungraded
32	0x9e30..0d35	TOO EARLY	180k	0.8%	ungraded
33	0x3504..ec2b	TOO EARLY	175k	0.7%	ungraded
34	0x2d51..6f52	TOO EARLY	171k	0.7%	ungraded
35	0x89be..103a	TOO EARLY	149k	0.6%	ungraded
36	0x92d7..6fc6	TOO EARLY	148k	0.6%	ungraded
37	0x1a0d..f351	TOO EARLY	140k	0.6%	ungraded
38	0xb738..9472	TOO EARLY	133k	0.6%	ungraded
39	0xc12f..39ee	TOO EARLY	127k	0.5%	ungraded
40	0x30b2..be50	TOO EARLY	126k	0.5%	ungraded
41	0xdf67..2de3	TOO EARLY	125k	0.5%	ungraded
42	0x003a..0577	TOO EARLY	122k	0.5%	ungraded
43	0xf018..4069	TOO EARLY	113k	0.5%	ungraded
44	0x5b7e..78a8	TOO EARLY	106k	0.4%	ungraded
45	0x8b64..96ee	TOO EARLY	99k	0.4%	ungraded
46	0x8d61..27bc	TOO EARLY	90k	0.4%	ungraded
47	0x6391..194a	TOO EARLY	88k	0.4%	ungraded
48	0x53d0..d897	TOO EARLY	85k	0.4%	ungraded
49	0x65af..2482	TOO EARLY	83k	0.4%	ungraded
50	0x7baa..946a	TOO EARLY	78k	0.3%	ungraded
51	0x5c2e..d55e	TOO EARLY	71k	0.3%	ungraded
52	0x89f9..2a45	TOO EARLY	69k	0.3%	ungraded
53	0x69d0..a819	TOO EARLY	68k	0.3%	ungraded
54	0xc9e8..8df5	TOO EARLY	67k	0.3%	ungraded
55	0x04b8..db57	TOO EARLY	64k	0.3%	ungraded
56	0xa9b0..c344	TOO EARLY	58k	0.2%	ungraded
57	0x1515..490a	TOO EARLY	58k	0.2%	ungraded
58	0x18f7..9222	TOO EARLY	56k	0.2%	ungraded
59	0x4431..9080	TOO EARLY	53k	0.2%	ungraded
60	0x403d..4490	TOO EARLY	39k	0.2%	ungraded
61	0xa4ef..a5ea	TOO EARLY	37k	0.2%	ungraded
62	0xa61b..88a5	TOO EARLY	34k	0.1%	ungraded
63	0x126d..c78e	TOO EARLY	30k	0.1%	ungraded
64	0x3d59..baa2	TOO EARLY	30k	0.1%	ungraded
65	0x1921..efa9	TOO EARLY	28k	0.1%	ungraded
66	0x566f..d9f0	TOO EARLY	27k	0.1%	ungraded
67	0x060b..81fa	TOO EARLY	27k	0.1%	ungraded
68	0xa2e5..27f4	TOO EARLY	26k	0.1%	ungraded
69	0x7b51..f56b	TOO EARLY	26k	0.1%	ungraded
70	0xa119..d55d	TOO EARLY	25k	0.1%	ungraded
71	0x47a4..368b	TOO EARLY	25k	0.1%	ungraded
72	0x69d0..586c	TOO EARLY	24k	0.1%	ungraded
73	0x4c0d..ff1d	TOO EARLY	19k	0.1%	ungraded
74	0x336b..d88f	TOO EARLY	15k	0.1%	ungraded
75	0x3939..e4ce	TOO EARLY	15k	0.1%	ungraded
76	0x2a6d..7e59	TOO EARLY	14k	0.1%	ungraded
77	0x4f49..8da9	TOO EARLY	12k	0.1%	ungraded
78	0x1ab8..64f4	TOO EARLY	12k	0.1%	ungraded
79	0xe748..9a11	TOO EARLY	12k	0.1%	ungraded
80	0x9497..f769	TOO EARLY	11k	0.0%	ungraded
81	0x122b..8aee	TOO EARLY	11k	0.0%	ungraded
82	0x4ddd..0cb2	TOO EARLY	10k	0.0%	ungraded
83	0xe637..9483	TOO EARLY	10k	0.0%	ungraded
84	0x465c..d022	TOO EARLY	9k	0.0%	ungraded
85	0x110f..f6fd	TOO EARLY	9k	0.0%	ungraded
86	0x23bb..183b	TOO EARLY	9k	0.0%	ungraded
87	0xd17e..2b36	TOO EARLY	9k	0.0%	ungraded
88	0xdb4d..bb4d	TOO EARLY	9k	0.0%	ungraded
89	0xc5af..a671	TOO EARLY	8k	0.0%	ungraded
90	0xd7e6..8b53	TOO EARLY	7k	0.0%	ungraded
91	0x1a46..cbc4	TOO EARLY	7k	0.0%	ungraded
92	0xcb8c..9937	TOO EARLY	6k	0.0%	ungraded
93	0x09ea..73fd	TOO EARLY	6k	0.0%	ungraded
94	0xa31c..6020	TOO EARLY	5k	0.0%	ungraded
95	0x5d54..cc4b	TOO EARLY	5k	0.0%	ungraded
96	0x9baf..0a44	TOO EARLY	5k	0.0%	ungraded
97	0xb483..28ab	TOO EARLY	5k	0.0%	ungraded
98	0x7e36..0c22	TOO EARLY	4k	0.0%	ungraded
99	0xc4eb..9946	TOO EARLY	4k	0.0%	ungraded
100	0x6e86..2587	TOO EARLY	3k	0.0%	ungraded
101	0x1cc9..397e	TOO EARLY	3k	0.0%	ungraded
102	0x55e0..c952	TOO EARLY	3k	0.0%	ungraded
103	0xdf50..ffda	TOO EARLY	3k	0.0%	ungraded
104	0x2a82..c9d8	TOO EARLY	3k	0.0%	ungraded
105	0x519e..fb3b	TOO EARLY	3k	0.0%	ungraded
106	0xa2cf..d7aa	TOO EARLY	2k	0.0%	ungraded
107	0x9860..1316	TOO EARLY	2k	0.0%	ungraded
108	0x558c..4808	TOO EARLY	2k	0.0%	ungraded
109	0xea8d..558a	TOO EARLY	2k	0.0%	ungraded
110	0x6280..57bb	TOO EARLY	2k	0.0%	ungraded
111	0xde0a..75f5	TOO EARLY	2k	0.0%	ungraded
112	0x18fe..3f3b	TOO EARLY	2k	0.0%	ungraded
113	0x1c80..d09a	TOO EARLY	2k	0.0%	ungraded
114	0x449f..d1c7	TOO EARLY	2k	0.0%	ungraded
115	0x08bb..2be1	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
116	0x48c7..0f91	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
117	0xf8e9..6fe8	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
118	0xa851..7438	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
119	0xbb1f..fba5	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
120	0xe3b0..1d12	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
121	0x49b3..bd78	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
122	0x27b0..14d2	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
123	0x9a47..4246	TOO EARLY	994	0.0%	ungraded
124	0x1306..bc55	TOO EARLY	982	0.0%	ungraded
125	0xd32e..bd3f	TOO EARLY	922	0.0%	ungraded
126	0x2c49..6ada	TOO EARLY	890	0.0%	ungraded
127	0x9c1f..0c09	TOO EARLY	857	0.0%	ungraded
128	0xc39c..a14d	TOO EARLY	846	0.0%	ungraded
129	0x6fc5..daf1	TOO EARLY	811	0.0%	ungraded
130	0xe6b5..f1fd	TOO EARLY	772	0.0%	ungraded
131	0x86cc..273d	TOO EARLY	717	0.0%	ungraded
132	0x28ec..1675	TOO EARLY	686	0.0%	ungraded
133	0x95af..26fc	TOO EARLY	678	0.0%	ungraded
134	0x7595..8027	TOO EARLY	670	0.0%	ungraded
135	0x3b9f..c44f	TOO EARLY	661	0.0%	ungraded
136	0x5a7c..ee4c	TOO EARLY	658	0.0%	ungraded
137	0x0ab3..ea53	TOO EARLY	647	0.0%	ungraded
138	0x5071..ad7b	TOO EARLY	639	0.0%	ungraded
139	0xbd73..e578	TOO EARLY	637	0.0%	ungraded
140	0x0b5d..4832	TOO EARLY	618	0.0%	ungraded
141	0x3e1b..523e	TOO EARLY	603	0.0%	ungraded
142	0x9fdb..0aea	TOO EARLY	602	0.0%	ungraded
143	0x5e19..0c0c	TOO EARLY	601	0.0%	ungraded
144	0x0773..d139	TOO EARLY	600	0.0%	ungraded
145	0x37c5..6545	TOO EARLY	599	0.0%	ungraded
146	0x2b37..83dc	TOO EARLY	591	0.0%	ungraded
147	0x5ebc..d55d	TOO EARLY	587	0.0%	ungraded
148	0x104d..e4e9	TOO EARLY	586	0.0%	ungraded
149	0xc573..09c1	TOO EARLY	585	0.0%	ungraded
150	0x3abe..817d	TOO EARLY	581	0.0%	ungraded
151	0x16d1..597a	TOO EARLY	576	0.0%	ungraded
152	0xe5e7..2f19	TOO EARLY	573	0.0%	ungraded
153	0x0293..f77e	TOO EARLY	573	0.0%	ungraded
154	0x5689..82b0	TOO EARLY	569	0.0%	ungraded
155	0xd8e4..9d15	TOO EARLY	567	0.0%	ungraded
156	0x785c..2de9	TOO EARLY	565	0.0%	ungraded
157	0x87a7..c1b6	TOO EARLY	565	0.0%	ungraded
158	0x7643..594b	TOO EARLY	562	0.0%	ungraded
159	0x6c87..ca76	TOO EARLY	561	0.0%	ungraded
160	0xa8b8..b984	TOO EARLY	561	0.0%	ungraded
161	0xf833..39b1	TOO EARLY	557	0.0%	ungraded
162	0xb67a..6122	TOO EARLY	557	0.0%	ungraded
163	0x36ce..5bc0	TOO EARLY	555	0.0%	ungraded
164	0x7c45..6af8	TOO EARLY	554	0.0%	ungraded
165	0x7975..2c86	TOO EARLY	553	0.0%	ungraded
166	0xc3ac..9d6b	TOO EARLY	551	0.0%	ungraded
167	0xd521..7329	TOO EARLY	550	0.0%	ungraded
168	0xacb4..dd18	TOO EARLY	549	0.0%	ungraded
169	0x0f44..60dc	TOO EARLY	547	0.0%	ungraded
170	0x4821..bdcf	TOO EARLY	546	0.0%	ungraded
171	0xb568..f97e	TOO EARLY	545	0.0%	ungraded
172	0xc7f3..a880	TOO EARLY	543	0.0%	ungraded
173	0xaef6..7b7c	TOO EARLY	543	0.0%	ungraded
174	0x349e..5168	TOO EARLY	543	0.0%	ungraded
175	0xcb4b..0caa	TOO EARLY	542	0.0%	ungraded
176	0x0182..399e	TOO EARLY	542	0.0%	ungraded
177	0x5784..a1ee	TOO EARLY	541	0.0%	ungraded
178	0x8782..32db	TOO EARLY	539	0.0%	ungraded
179	0x8e56..9e77	TOO EARLY	539	0.0%	ungraded
180	0xb538..8b0f	TOO EARLY	537	0.0%	ungraded
181	0x24eb..a05a	TOO EARLY	537	0.0%	ungraded
182	0x0fb0..5be0	TOO EARLY	533	0.0%	ungraded
183	0xbd9d..98eb	TOO EARLY	533	0.0%	ungraded
184	0x9f9a..03be	TOO EARLY	533	0.0%	ungraded
185	0x73cd..af4d	TOO EARLY	532	0.0%	ungraded
186	0x4be8..0604	TOO EARLY	532	0.0%	ungraded
187	0x90da..1a73	TOO EARLY	532	0.0%	ungraded
188	0xf08c..35f9	TOO EARLY	530	0.0%	ungraded
189	0xf0dc..fe78	TOO EARLY	530	0.0%	ungraded
190	0x3745..650e	TOO EARLY	526	0.0%	ungraded
191	0x5022..df9e	TOO EARLY	526	0.0%	ungraded
192	0x57cb..0f3e	TOO EARLY	525	0.0%	ungraded
193	0x8bc1..4230	TOO EARLY	523	0.0%	ungraded
194	0x34d4..6ab2	TOO EARLY	522	0.0%	ungraded
195	0x0215..3d40	TOO EARLY	521	0.0%	ungraded
196	0xcfb3..400e	TOO EARLY	520	0.0%	ungraded
197	0x80cc..ca98	TOO EARLY	519	0.0%	ungraded
198	0xe321..d544	TOO EARLY	518	0.0%	ungraded
199	0xf025..c7b1	TOO EARLY	517	0.0%	ungraded
200	0x2947..32a5	TOO EARLY	516	0.0%	ungraded
201	0x0939..befb	TOO EARLY	515	0.0%	ungraded
202	0xfb04..110c	TOO EARLY	514	0.0%	ungraded
203	0x3b45..3008	TOO EARLY	513	0.0%	ungraded
204	0x3dd7..1345	TOO EARLY	510	0.0%	ungraded
205	0x0045..501d	TOO EARLY	506	0.0%	ungraded
206	0xccd9..cef6	TOO EARLY	505	0.0%	ungraded
207	0x858f..c13c	TOO EARLY	504	0.0%	ungraded
208	0xcd6d..e2e0	TOO EARLY	502	0.0%	ungraded
209	0xd7c7..ff8f	TOO EARLY	445	0.0%	ungraded
210	0xf548..da63	TOO EARLY	107	0.0%	ungraded
211	0x2071..390a	TOO EARLY	77	0.0%	ungraded