Grok 4 released by September 30?

disputed market · polymarket · uma dvm resolved YES 2025-07-13

voters

225

voted against

against share

22.2%

top wallet held

10.3%

total weight

22.7M

chain record #44

f4978f1996a7d53672bdba4dea608b3cd3f23fdde72c407674cf70859252a879

previous record

03ab60a462517492f5bf2da20ef809cf8e465d12e3bc77a07b9fa0ac5b098560

recorded

2026-07-02T06:42:27z · request 0x5945535f4f525f4e4f5f51554552590000000000000000000000000000000000:1752120401:ea88f89cbd4079d0

the judges

175 with · 50 against · correctness vs uma's own resolved price, not ground truth

#	wallet	vote	weight	share	vs outcome
1	0xb524..3715	YES	2.3M	10.3%	✓ with
2	0x8e34..c97a	YES	2.0M	8.8%	✓ with
3	0xc60a..fea0	YES	2.0M	8.8%	✓ with
4	0xfc20..1e1c	YES	1.5M	6.6%	✓ with
5	0xd2a7..9f7f	YES	1.4M	6.1%	✓ with
6	0x95cd..29b8	YES	953k	4.2%	✓ with
7	0xfec2..04a5	YES	937k	4.1%	✓ with
8	0x996d..aff1	YES	919k	4.0%	✓ with
9	0x05d1..f8c4	YES	900k	4.0%	✓ with
10	0x0afc..0b38	YES	648k	2.8%	✓ with
11	0x487a..2538	YES	604k	2.7%	✓ with
12	0x2488..7238	YES	410k	1.8%	✓ with
13	0x8548..e67e	TOO EARLY	369k	1.6%	✗ early
14	0xbd4b..287d	TOO EARLY	367k	1.6%	✗ early
15	0xbd9e..baa7	TOO EARLY	356k	1.6%	✗ early
16	0x326c..4205	TOO EARLY	352k	1.5%	✗ early
17	0x66ca..225a	YES	322k	1.4%	✓ with
18	0x20ec..56c0	TOO EARLY	301k	1.3%	✗ early
19	0x9b8f..ed2f	YES	290k	1.3%	✓ with
20	0x4863..e44f	TOO EARLY	265k	1.2%	✗ early
21	0xfe93..9c9d	TOO EARLY	256k	1.1%	✗ early
22	0xb731..5790	YES	240k	1.1%	✓ with
23	0x840b..946f	YES	238k	1.0%	✓ with
24	0xf659..d48b	TOO EARLY	233k	1.0%	✗ early
25	0xdc86..821a	YES	226k	1.0%	✓ with
26	0x6c31..7d98	TOO EARLY	217k	1.0%	✗ early
27	0x2bc1..a7e7	YES	217k	1.0%	✓ with
28	0x6573..8efe	TOO EARLY	197k	0.9%	✗ early
29	0xf002..bfb2	YES	195k	0.9%	✓ with
30	0x2d51..6f52	YES	167k	0.7%	✓ with
31	0xb738..9472	YES	161k	0.7%	✓ with
32	0xfee5..5d78	YES	154k	0.7%	✓ with
33	0x89be..103a	YES	147k	0.6%	✓ with
34	0x92d7..6fc6	YES	144k	0.6%	✓ with
35	0x1a0d..f351	YES	135k	0.6%	✓ with
36	0x216a..92ba	YES	132k	0.6%	✓ with
37	0xc12f..39ee	YES	125k	0.6%	✓ with
38	0x30b2..be50	YES	123k	0.5%	✓ with
39	0xdf67..2de3	YES	122k	0.5%	✓ with
40	0x003a..0577	TOO EARLY	118k	0.5%	✗ early
41	0xf018..4069	YES	111k	0.5%	✓ with
42	0x5b7e..78a8	YES	103k	0.5%	✓ with
43	0x8b64..96ee	TOO EARLY	96k	0.4%	✗ early
44	0x53d0..d897	YES	83k	0.4%	✓ with
45	0x65af..2482	YES	82k	0.4%	✓ with
46	0xd4c1..6e2e	TOO EARLY	80k	0.4%	✗ early
47	0x7baa..946a	TOO EARLY	76k	0.3%	✗ early
48	0xa9b0..c344	TOO EARLY	75k	0.3%	✗ early
49	0xd431..e9d9	YES	75k	0.3%	✓ with
50	0x69d0..a819	YES	70k	0.3%	✓ with
51	0x5c2e..d55e	YES	69k	0.3%	✓ with
52	0xc9e8..8df5	YES	65k	0.3%	✓ with
53	0x04b8..db57	YES	62k	0.3%	✓ with
54	0x1515..490a	YES	56k	0.2%	✓ with
55	0x18f7..9222	YES	55k	0.2%	✓ with
56	0xd9f9..7598	YES	50k	0.2%	✓ with
57	0x403d..4490	TOO EARLY	40k	0.2%	✗ early
58	0xa4ef..a5ea	YES	36k	0.2%	✓ with
59	0xa61b..88a5	TOO EARLY	33k	0.1%	✗ early
60	0xa7b9..87d0	YES	31k	0.1%	✓ with
61	0x126d..c78e	YES	29k	0.1%	✓ with
62	0xab0c..8b3b	TOO EARLY	28k	0.1%	✗ early
63	0xcf4d..5592	YES	28k	0.1%	✓ with
64	0xa2e5..27f4	YES	28k	0.1%	✓ with
65	0x566f..d9f0	YES	27k	0.1%	✓ with
66	0x7b51..f56b	YES	25k	0.1%	✓ with
67	0x47a4..368b	YES	25k	0.1%	✓ with
68	0x69d0..586c	YES	22k	0.1%	✓ with
69	0x74e4..9053	YES	22k	0.1%	✓ with
70	0x4c0d..ff1d	YES	18k	0.1%	✓ with
71	0x1ab8..64f4	YES	16k	0.1%	✓ with
72	0x336b..d88f	YES	15k	0.1%	✓ with
73	0x2a6d..7e59	TOO EARLY	13k	0.1%	✗ early
74	0xc29a..c1a6	YES	13k	0.1%	✓ with
75	0x9b6f..4ced	TOO EARLY	12k	0.1%	✗ early
76	0x4f49..8da9	YES	11k	0.0%	✓ with
77	0x9497..f769	YES	11k	0.0%	✓ with
78	0xe748..9a11	YES	11k	0.0%	✓ with
79	0x4ddd..0cb2	TOO EARLY	10k	0.0%	✗ early
80	0x196f..7ff6	TOO EARLY	10k	0.0%	✗ early
81	0xe637..9483	YES	9k	0.0%	✓ with
82	0xc5af..a671	YES	9k	0.0%	✓ with
83	0xd17e..2b36	YES	9k	0.0%	✓ with
84	0x465c..d022	YES	9k	0.0%	✓ with
85	0x110f..f6fd	YES	9k	0.0%	✓ with
86	0x9928..8cee	YES	9k	0.0%	✓ with
87	0xdb4d..bb4d	TOO EARLY	8k	0.0%	✗ early
88	0x3939..e4ce	TOO EARLY	7k	0.0%	✗ early
89	0x1a46..cbc4	YES	6k	0.0%	✓ with
90	0x37c5..6545	TOO EARLY	6k	0.0%	✗ early
91	0xcb8c..9937	YES	6k	0.0%	✓ with
92	0x8c48..b938	YES	6k	0.0%	✓ with
93	0xea1e..4f9a	TOO EARLY	5k	0.0%	✗ early
94	0x5d54..cc4b	TOO EARLY	5k	0.0%	✗ early
95	0xa31c..6020	YES	5k	0.0%	✓ with
96	0x9baf..0a44	YES	5k	0.0%	✓ with
97	0xb483..28ab	YES	5k	0.0%	✓ with
98	0x7e36..0c22	YES	4k	0.0%	✓ with
99	0x21a7..bce1	TOO EARLY	4k	0.0%	✗ early
100	0xc4eb..9946	YES	4k	0.0%	✓ with
101	0x1cc9..397e	YES	3k	0.0%	✓ with
102	0x2a82..c9d8	YES	3k	0.0%	✓ with
103	0x519e..fb3b	YES	3k	0.0%	✓ with
104	0x122b..8aee	TOO EARLY	3k	0.0%	✗ early
105	0x55e0..c952	YES	3k	0.0%	✓ with
106	0x9860..1316	TOO EARLY	2k	0.0%	✗ early
107	0xea8d..558a	YES	2k	0.0%	✓ with
108	0x6280..57bb	YES	2k	0.0%	✓ with
109	0xde0a..75f5	YES	2k	0.0%	✓ with
110	0x1c80..d09a	YES	2k	0.0%	✓ with
111	0x449f..d1c7	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	✗ early
112	0x08bb..2be1	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	✗ early
113	0xde26..dad7	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
114	0x99bc..2fd9	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
115	0x48c7..0f91	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
116	0xf8e9..6fe8	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
117	0xa851..7438	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
118	0xf33e..db10	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
119	0xbb1f..fba5	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
120	0xe3b0..1d12	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
121	0xb362..e683	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
122	0x5b01..2ed2	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
123	0xf1de..7990	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	✗ early
124	0x90b9..2464	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
125	0x7c9c..76ed	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
126	0xa89f..b642	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
127	0x76cc..8829	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
128	0x7d8a..388c	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
129	0x0fad..ef15	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
130	0x8a74..5d7d	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
131	0x49b3..bd78	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
132	0x9a47..4246	YES	996	0.0%	✓ with
133	0xcc50..da38	YES	989	0.0%	✓ with
134	0x0b02..9fee	YES	987	0.0%	✓ with
135	0x9101..dd9f	YES	986	0.0%	✓ with
136	0xac88..5757	YES	986	0.0%	✓ with
137	0xc84f..747b	YES	982	0.0%	✓ with
138	0x06ce..20ea	YES	981	0.0%	✓ with
139	0xa21c..1e3a	YES	981	0.0%	✓ with
140	0xf5df..d5ae	YES	977	0.0%	✓ with
141	0x1306..bc55	YES	971	0.0%	✓ with
142	0x2027..50ff	YES	963	0.0%	✓ with
143	0x50d2..31ef	YES	959	0.0%	✓ with
144	0x074f..9d52	YES	951	0.0%	✓ with
145	0x9c1f..0c09	YES	849	0.0%	✓ with
146	0xa2cf..d7aa	YES	815	0.0%	✓ with
147	0xd0d1..494d	YES	799	0.0%	✓ with
148	0x6fc5..daf1	YES	776	0.0%	✓ with
149	0x2a1b..a08f	TOO EARLY	750	0.0%	✗ early
150	0xe6b5..f1fd	YES	749	0.0%	✓ with
151	0x28ec..1675	YES	686	0.0%	✓ with
152	0x86cc..273d	TOO EARLY	683	0.0%	✗ early
153	0x95af..26fc	YES	677	0.0%	✓ with
154	0x7595..8027	YES	651	0.0%	✓ with
155	0x3b9f..c44f	YES	642	0.0%	✓ with
156	0xdc20..021d	YES	637	0.0%	✓ with
157	0x5071..ad7b	YES	620	0.0%	✓ with
158	0x5a7c..ee4c	YES	619	0.0%	✓ with
159	0x0b5d..4832	YES	611	0.0%	✓ with
160	0xd8d7..d24e	YES	598	0.0%	✓ with
161	0x0773..d139	YES	590	0.0%	✓ with
162	0x104d..e4e9	YES	590	0.0%	✓ with
163	0x3e1b..523e	YES	587	0.0%	✓ with
164	0x9fdb..0aea	YES	579	0.0%	✓ with
165	0x56d7..7226	TOO EARLY	578	0.0%	✗ early
166	0x101a..b9e5	YES	574	0.0%	✓ with
167	0x3abe..817d	YES	574	0.0%	✓ with
168	0x2b37..83dc	YES	573	0.0%	✓ with
169	0x5ebc..d55d	YES	571	0.0%	✓ with
170	0xc573..09c1	YES	567	0.0%	✓ with
171	0xe5e7..2f19	YES	567	0.0%	✓ with
172	0x5689..82b0	YES	564	0.0%	✓ with
173	0xd8e4..9d15	YES	560	0.0%	✓ with
174	0xcfb3..400e	YES	559	0.0%	✓ with
175	0x16d1..597a	TOO EARLY	558	0.0%	✗ early
176	0x87a7..c1b6	YES	558	0.0%	✓ with
177	0x0293..f77e	YES	557	0.0%	✓ with
178	0x1049..c8e5	YES	552	0.0%	✓ with
179	0x6e86..2587	YES	550	0.0%	✓ with
180	0x7c45..6af8	YES	549	0.0%	✓ with
181	0xacb4..dd18	YES	542	0.0%	✓ with
182	0xb67a..6122	YES	540	0.0%	✓ with
183	0x4821..bdcf	YES	539	0.0%	✓ with
184	0xa8b8..b984	YES	539	0.0%	✓ with
185	0xcb4b..0caa	TOO EARLY	539	0.0%	✗ early
186	0x36ce..5bc0	YES	537	0.0%	✓ with
187	0x349e..5168	YES	536	0.0%	✓ with
188	0x68c1..859a	TOO EARLY	536	0.0%	✗ early
189	0xb538..8b0f	TOO EARLY	534	0.0%	✗ early
190	0xc3ac..9d6b	YES	533	0.0%	✓ with
191	0x8782..32db	YES	533	0.0%	✓ with
192	0x8e56..9e77	YES	532	0.0%	✓ with
193	0xf3c1..2329	YES	532	0.0%	✓ with
194	0x24eb..a05a	TOO EARLY	531	0.0%	✗ early
195	0xaa9e..d624	TOO EARLY	530	0.0%	✗ early
196	0xbd9d..98eb	TOO EARLY	530	0.0%	✗ early
197	0x0182..399e	YES	529	0.0%	✓ with
198	0x9f9a..03be	TOO EARLY	528	0.0%	✗ early
199	0xaef6..7b7c	YES	525	0.0%	✓ with
200	0x72b5..3236	TOO EARLY	524	0.0%	✗ early
201	0x3b45..3008	YES	523	0.0%	✓ with
202	0xc6c3..d292	TOO EARLY	521	0.0%	✗ early
203	0x7a40..be8a	YES	520	0.0%	✓ with
204	0x3745..650e	YES	520	0.0%	✓ with
205	0xfb1f..a12c	YES	519	0.0%	✓ with
206	0x57cb..0f3e	YES	518	0.0%	✓ with
207	0x8bc1..4230	YES	518	0.0%	✓ with
208	0x73cd..af4d	YES	516	0.0%	✓ with
209	0x80cc..ca98	TOO EARLY	515	0.0%	✗ early
210	0x5784..a1ee	YES	515	0.0%	✓ with
211	0x0939..befb	TOO EARLY	512	0.0%	✗ early
212	0xf3b6..99bf	YES	512	0.0%	✓ with
213	0x9e43..b563	YES	512	0.0%	✓ with
214	0xe321..d544	YES	512	0.0%	✓ with
215	0xf025..c7b1	YES	512	0.0%	✓ with
216	0x52b8..31f9	YES	511	0.0%	✓ with
217	0x2947..32a5	YES	511	0.0%	✓ with
218	0xfb04..110c	TOO EARLY	511	0.0%	✗ early
219	0x3dd7..1345	YES	506	0.0%	✓ with
220	0x0f44..60dc	YES	503	0.0%	✓ with
221	0xd7e6..8b53	YES	427	0.0%	✓ with
222	0x5a94..97ee	YES	411	0.0%	✓ with
223	0x4fe9..defe	TOO EARLY	309	0.0%	✗ early
224	0x2071..390a	YES	79	0.0%	✓ with
225	0x32c7..5a1b	YES	10	0.0%	✓ with