Will Jair Bolsonaro be arrested in Brazil by August 31?

disputed market · polymarket · uma dvm resolved YES 2025-08-08

voters

264

voted against

against share

3.8%

top wallet held

10.9%

total weight

22.0M

chain record #148

6361010c01874710dd976a255a1834834d33255c08f891b9c6ae72e2da88eaa0

previous record

cddf9a29a959ebf62ccbcb82b1d8c384c0e37cad6df4060021bcdab7bfd9d23c

recorded

2026-07-02T06:42:27z · request 0x5945535f4f525f4e4f5f51554552590000000000000000000000000000000000:1754343595:5aff3b426560740c

the judges

254 with · 10 against · correctness vs uma's own resolved price, not ground truth

#	wallet	vote	weight	share	vs outcome
1	0xb524..3715	YES	2.4M	10.9%	✓ with
2	0x8e34..c97a	YES	2.1M	9.3%	✓ with
3	0xc60a..fea0	YES	2.0M	9.3%	✓ with
4	0xfc20..1e1c	YES	1.5M	6.9%	✓ with
5	0xd2a7..9f7f	YES	1.4M	6.3%	✓ with
6	0x95cd..29b8	YES	961k	4.4%	✓ with
7	0xfec2..04a5	YES	941k	4.3%	✓ with
8	0x05d1..f8c4	YES	908k	4.1%	✓ with
9	0x996d..aff1	YES	898k	4.1%	✓ with
10	0x0afc..0b38	YES	661k	3.0%	✓ with
11	0x6564..340c	YES	424k	1.9%	✓ with
12	0xdb28..b80a	YES	386k	1.8%	✓ with
13	0x8548..e67e	YES	377k	1.7%	✓ with
14	0xbd4b..287d	YES	374k	1.7%	✓ with
15	0xbd9e..baa7	YES	367k	1.7%	✓ with
16	0x326c..4205	YES	358k	1.6%	✓ with
17	0x66ca..225a	YES	328k	1.5%	✓ with
18	0x9b8f..ed2f	YES	292k	1.3%	✓ with
19	0xb731..5790	YES	242k	1.1%	✓ with
20	0x840b..946f	YES	242k	1.1%	✓ with
21	0xf659..d48b	YES	239k	1.1%	✓ with
22	0xfe93..9c9d	YES	238k	1.1%	✓ with
23	0xdc86..821a	YES	231k	1.1%	✓ with
24	0x2bc1..a7e7	YES	225k	1.0%	✓ with
25	0x6c31..7d98	TOO EARLY	221k	1.0%	✗ early
26	0xf002..bfb2	YES	200k	0.9%	✓ with
27	0x3504..ec2b	YES	174k	0.8%	✓ with
28	0x2d51..6f52	YES	170k	0.8%	✓ with
29	0x89be..103a	YES	147k	0.7%	✓ with
30	0x92d7..6fc6	YES	147k	0.7%	✓ with
31	0x1a0d..f351	YES	136k	0.6%	✓ with
32	0x9928..8cee	YES	127k	0.6%	✓ with
33	0xc12f..39ee	YES	127k	0.6%	✓ with
34	0x30b2..be50	YES	125k	0.6%	✓ with
35	0xdf67..2de3	YES	124k	0.6%	✓ with
36	0x003a..0577	YES	120k	0.5%	✓ with
37	0xf018..4069	YES	112k	0.5%	✓ with
38	0x5b7e..78a8	YES	105k	0.5%	✓ with
39	0xb738..9472	YES	101k	0.5%	✓ with
40	0x8b64..96ee	YES	98k	0.4%	✓ with
41	0x8d61..27bc	TOO EARLY	91k	0.4%	✗ early
42	0x6391..194a	YES	90k	0.4%	✓ with
43	0x53d0..d897	YES	84k	0.4%	✓ with
44	0x65af..2482	YES	83k	0.4%	✓ with
45	0x7baa..946a	TOO EARLY	77k	0.4%	✗ early
46	0x5c2e..d55e	YES	71k	0.3%	✓ with
47	0x69d0..a819	YES	67k	0.3%	✓ with
48	0xc9e8..8df5	YES	66k	0.3%	✓ with
49	0x04b8..db57	YES	65k	0.3%	✓ with
50	0xd4c1..6e2e	TOO EARLY	61k	0.3%	✗ early
51	0xa9b0..c344	YES	58k	0.3%	✓ with
52	0x1515..490a	YES	57k	0.3%	✓ with
53	0x18f7..9222	YES	56k	0.3%	✓ with
54	0x4431..9080	YES	53k	0.2%	✓ with
55	0x403d..4490	YES	39k	0.2%	✓ with
56	0xa4ef..a5ea	YES	36k	0.2%	✓ with
57	0xa61b..88a5	YES	33k	0.2%	✓ with
58	0xa7b9..87d0	YES	33k	0.1%	✓ with
59	0x3d59..baa2	YES	30k	0.1%	✓ with
60	0x126d..c78e	YES	30k	0.1%	✓ with
61	0x1921..efa9	YES	28k	0.1%	✓ with
62	0x566f..d9f0	YES	28k	0.1%	✓ with
63	0xa2e5..27f4	YES	26k	0.1%	✓ with
64	0x7b51..f56b	YES	26k	0.1%	✓ with
65	0x47a4..368b	YES	25k	0.1%	✓ with
66	0x69d0..586c	YES	23k	0.1%	✓ with
67	0x4c0d..ff1d	YES	18k	0.1%	✓ with
68	0x336b..d88f	YES	15k	0.1%	✓ with
69	0x2a6d..7e59	YES	13k	0.1%	✓ with
70	0x4f49..8da9	YES	12k	0.1%	✓ with
71	0x1ab8..64f4	YES	12k	0.1%	✓ with
72	0x9b6f..4ced	YES	12k	0.1%	✓ with
73	0xe748..9a11	YES	11k	0.1%	✓ with
74	0x9497..f769	YES	11k	0.0%	✓ with
75	0x122b..8aee	YES	11k	0.0%	✓ with
76	0x4ddd..0cb2	YES	10k	0.0%	✓ with
77	0xe637..9483	YES	10k	0.0%	✓ with
78	0x465c..d022	YES	9k	0.0%	✓ with
79	0x110f..f6fd	YES	9k	0.0%	✓ with
80	0xd17e..2b36	YES	9k	0.0%	✓ with
81	0xdb4d..bb4d	TOO EARLY	9k	0.0%	✗ early
82	0x8ce7..0337	YES	7k	0.0%	✓ with
83	0x1a46..cbc4	YES	7k	0.0%	✓ with
84	0xcb8c..9937	YES	6k	0.0%	✓ with
85	0x09ea..73fd	YES	6k	0.0%	✓ with
86	0xa31c..6020	YES	5k	0.0%	✓ with
87	0xea1e..4f9a	YES	5k	0.0%	✓ with
88	0x5d54..cc4b	YES	5k	0.0%	✓ with
89	0x9baf..0a44	YES	5k	0.0%	✓ with
90	0xb483..28ab	YES	5k	0.0%	✓ with
91	0x7e36..0c22	YES	4k	0.0%	✓ with
92	0xc4eb..9946	YES	4k	0.0%	✓ with
93	0x6e86..2587	YES	3k	0.0%	✓ with
94	0x1cc9..397e	YES	3k	0.0%	✓ with
95	0x55e0..c952	YES	3k	0.0%	✓ with
96	0xdf50..ffda	YES	3k	0.0%	✓ with
97	0x2a82..c9d8	YES	3k	0.0%	✓ with
98	0x519e..fb3b	YES	3k	0.0%	✓ with
99	0xd7e6..8b53	YES	3k	0.0%	✓ with
100	0x9860..1316	YES	2k	0.0%	✓ with
101	0xea8d..558a	YES	2k	0.0%	✓ with
102	0xa2cf..d7aa	YES	2k	0.0%	✓ with
103	0x6280..57bb	YES	2k	0.0%	✓ with
104	0xde0a..75f5	YES	2k	0.0%	✓ with
105	0x18fe..3f3b	YES	2k	0.0%	✓ with
106	0x1c80..d09a	YES	2k	0.0%	✓ with
107	0x449f..d1c7	YES	2k	0.0%	✓ with
108	0x99bc..2fd9	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	✗ early
109	0x48c7..0f91	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
110	0xf8e9..6fe8	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
111	0xa851..7438	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
112	0xbb1f..fba5	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
113	0x93a6..ced4	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
114	0xe3b0..1d12	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
115	0x49b3..bd78	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
116	0x27b0..14d2	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
117	0x060b..81fa	YES	1k	0.0%	✓ with
118	0x5f4f..39d1	YES	997	0.0%	✓ with
119	0x9a47..4246	YES	992	0.0%	✓ with
120	0x1306..bc55	YES	979	0.0%	✓ with
121	0xd0d1..494d	YES	912	0.0%	✓ with
122	0x9c1f..0c09	YES	854	0.0%	✓ with
123	0xc39c..a14d	YES	843	0.0%	✓ with
124	0x2c49..6ada	YES	815	0.0%	✓ with
125	0x6fc5..daf1	YES	798	0.0%	✓ with
126	0xe6b5..f1fd	YES	769	0.0%	✓ with
127	0x7bae..cbdc	YES	746	0.0%	✓ with
128	0x2a1b..a08f	YES	738	0.0%	✓ with
129	0x2723..bc10	YES	733	0.0%	✓ with
130	0x86cc..273d	YES	715	0.0%	✓ with
131	0x28ec..1675	YES	689	0.0%	✓ with
132	0x95af..26fc	YES	681	0.0%	✓ with
133	0x7595..8027	YES	656	0.0%	✓ with
134	0x5a7c..ee4c	YES	649	0.0%	✓ with
135	0x3b9f..c44f	YES	647	0.0%	✓ with
136	0x5071..ad7b	YES	625	0.0%	✓ with
137	0x0b5d..4832	YES	616	0.0%	✓ with
138	0x5e19..0c0c	YES	608	0.0%	✓ with
139	0x37c5..6545	TOO EARLY	597	0.0%	✗ early
140	0x9fdb..0aea	YES	594	0.0%	✓ with
141	0x3e1b..523e	YES	592	0.0%	✓ with
142	0xbd73..e578	YES	589	0.0%	✓ with
143	0x5ebc..d55d	YES	585	0.0%	✓ with
144	0x104d..e4e9	YES	584	0.0%	✓ with
145	0x3abe..817d	YES	578	0.0%	✓ with
146	0x2b37..83dc	YES	578	0.0%	✓ with
147	0x16d1..597a	YES	574	0.0%	✓ with
148	0xc573..09c1	YES	572	0.0%	✓ with
149	0xe5e7..2f19	YES	571	0.0%	✓ with
150	0x0293..f77e	YES	571	0.0%	✓ with
151	0x68c1..859a	TOO EARLY	571	0.0%	✗ early
152	0x5689..82b0	YES	567	0.0%	✓ with
153	0xd8e4..9d15	YES	565	0.0%	✓ with
154	0x87a7..c1b6	YES	563	0.0%	✓ with
155	0x785c..2de9	YES	558	0.0%	✓ with
156	0xb67a..6122	YES	555	0.0%	✓ with
157	0x7c45..6af8	YES	552	0.0%	✓ with
158	0xa8b8..b984	YES	549	0.0%	✓ with
159	0x6c87..ca76	YES	548	0.0%	✓ with
160	0xacb4..dd18	YES	547	0.0%	✓ with
161	0xd521..7329	YES	545	0.0%	✓ with
162	0x4821..bdcf	YES	544	0.0%	✓ with
163	0x5d21..36a5	YES	543	0.0%	✓ with
164	0x36ce..5bc0	YES	542	0.0%	✓ with
165	0x349e..5168	YES	541	0.0%	✓ with
166	0xcb4b..0caa	TOO EARLY	540	0.0%	✗ early
167	0x0182..399e	YES	540	0.0%	✓ with
168	0x5784..a1ee	YES	539	0.0%	✓ with
169	0xc3ac..9d6b	YES	538	0.0%	✓ with
170	0x8782..32db	YES	537	0.0%	✓ with
171	0x8e56..9e77	YES	537	0.0%	✓ with
172	0xb538..8b0f	YES	535	0.0%	✓ with
173	0x24eb..a05a	YES	535	0.0%	✓ with
174	0xf3c1..2329	YES	534	0.0%	✓ with
175	0x8e5f..1e4a	YES	534	0.0%	✓ with
176	0x590a..43f6	YES	533	0.0%	✓ with
177	0x0bb9..b81d	YES	533	0.0%	✓ with
178	0x4876..0a9b	YES	532	0.0%	✓ with
179	0x9f9a..03be	YES	531	0.0%	✓ with
180	0xc4e7..b4d9	YES	531	0.0%	✓ with
181	0xd273..e3c6	YES	531	0.0%	✓ with
182	0xbd9d..98eb	YES	531	0.0%	✓ with
183	0x430c..2e5f	YES	531	0.0%	✓ with
184	0x4151..097c	YES	531	0.0%	✓ with
185	0xc590..d510	YES	531	0.0%	✓ with
186	0xaef6..7b7c	YES	530	0.0%	✓ with
187	0x90da..1a73	YES	530	0.0%	✓ with
188	0x3b84..a587	YES	529	0.0%	✓ with
189	0x4913..d50a	YES	529	0.0%	✓ with
190	0x9cf0..f4c8	YES	529	0.0%	✓ with
191	0x63d4..959e	YES	528	0.0%	✓ with
192	0x2f55..5866	YES	528	0.0%	✓ with
193	0xf0dc..fe78	YES	528	0.0%	✓ with
194	0x7ca4..619c	YES	527	0.0%	✓ with
195	0x1edb..ca66	YES	527	0.0%	✓ with
196	0x5bc3..3942	YES	527	0.0%	✓ with
197	0xfa8c..97f6	YES	527	0.0%	✓ with
198	0xec2b..4e9c	YES	527	0.0%	✓ with
199	0xc0dc..9fb4	YES	527	0.0%	✓ with
200	0xca64..c51b	YES	527	0.0%	✓ with
201	0x3895..9f79	YES	527	0.0%	✓ with
202	0xb4c9..9d09	YES	526	0.0%	✓ with
203	0x3b59..4444	YES	526	0.0%	✓ with
204	0x09a1..2913	YES	526	0.0%	✓ with
205	0xd1cd..6df1	YES	526	0.0%	✓ with
206	0x72b5..3236	YES	525	0.0%	✓ with
207	0xc6c3..d292	YES	525	0.0%	✓ with
208	0x4010..2528	YES	524	0.0%	✓ with
209	0x3745..650e	YES	524	0.0%	✓ with
210	0x5060..8cb7	YES	524	0.0%	✓ with
211	0xf3c1..cf9c	YES	524	0.0%	✓ with
212	0xa463..d01c	YES	524	0.0%	✓ with
213	0x1f12..f16e	YES	524	0.0%	✓ with
214	0x40bf..389b	YES	524	0.0%	✓ with
215	0x28cc..7c61	YES	523	0.0%	✓ with
216	0xc428..867c	YES	523	0.0%	✓ with
217	0x4241..f563	YES	523	0.0%	✓ with
218	0xfb1f..a12c	YES	523	0.0%	✓ with
219	0xbb68..3e3c	YES	523	0.0%	✓ with
220	0x3367..02c4	YES	523	0.0%	✓ with
221	0x57cb..0f3e	YES	523	0.0%	✓ with
222	0xcfb3..400e	YES	523	0.0%	✓ with
223	0xde72..82d9	YES	523	0.0%	✓ with
224	0x630a..42f5	YES	522	0.0%	✓ with
225	0x92bd..20ea	YES	522	0.0%	✓ with
226	0x54d6..ae04	YES	522	0.0%	✓ with
227	0x7a40..be8a	YES	521	0.0%	✓ with
228	0x8bc1..4230	YES	521	0.0%	✓ with
229	0x73cd..af4d	YES	521	0.0%	✓ with
230	0xab0e..a340	YES	521	0.0%	✓ with
231	0xd8c3..30f6	YES	520	0.0%	✓ with
232	0x3bd0..2f8e	YES	520	0.0%	✓ with
233	0x216b..d812	YES	520	0.0%	✓ with
234	0xe7ff..6f47	YES	520	0.0%	✓ with
235	0x6748..2d1b	YES	519	0.0%	✓ with
236	0x4289..9bdc	YES	519	0.0%	✓ with
237	0x26fd..ebf5	YES	519	0.0%	✓ with
238	0x58cf..5ba9	YES	519	0.0%	✓ with
239	0x80cc..ca98	YES	517	0.0%	✓ with
240	0x2f96..e491	YES	517	0.0%	✓ with
241	0x6137..5467	YES	517	0.0%	✓ with
242	0xe321..d544	YES	516	0.0%	✓ with
243	0xdb6d..a527	YES	516	0.0%	✓ with
244	0x9e43..b563	YES	515	0.0%	✓ with
245	0x3b45..3008	YES	515	0.0%	✓ with
246	0x4af8..cb7c	YES	515	0.0%	✓ with
247	0xf025..c7b1	YES	515	0.0%	✓ with
248	0xf3b6..99bf	YES	515	0.0%	✓ with
249	0x34d4..6ab2	YES	514	0.0%	✓ with
250	0x2947..32a5	YES	514	0.0%	✓ with
251	0x52b8..31f9	YES	514	0.0%	✓ with
252	0x0939..befb	YES	513	0.0%	✓ with
253	0xfb04..110c	YES	512	0.0%	✓ with
254	0x0f44..60dc	YES	511	0.0%	✓ with
255	0x4be8..0604	YES	510	0.0%	✓ with
256	0x0045..501d	YES	509	0.0%	✓ with
257	0xccd9..cef6	YES	508	0.0%	✓ with
258	0x3dd7..1345	YES	508	0.0%	✓ with
259	0xb568..f97e	YES	502	0.0%	✓ with
260	0xf08c..35f9	YES	489	0.0%	✓ with
261	0xd7c7..ff8f	YES	407	0.0%	✓ with
262	0x78f9..4dd9	YES	322	0.0%	✓ with
263	0xc64e..ef3e	TOO EARLY	99	0.0%	✗ early
264	0x2071..390a	YES	78	0.0%	✓ with