Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?

disputed market · polymarket · uma dvm resolved early? 2025-07-09

voters

235

voted against

against share

0.0%

top wallet held

12.1%

total weight

19.3M

chain record #24

d7c6a0c25b2bb19524e457efa50b67b0bfbd8358df1bd582e22414d3226d9ddc

previous record

57e2f3c41077a1bfdd749719b443e0a98a8a79f4f1ffb4b705bd617c77fd43dc

recorded

2026-07-02T06:42:27z · request 0x5945535f4f525f4e4f5f51554552590000000000000000000000000000000000:1751686918:161b5fff417f2bb7

the judges

235 with · 0 against · correctness vs uma's own resolved price, not ground truth

#	wallet	vote	weight	share	vs outcome
1	0xb524..3715	TOO EARLY	2.3M	12.1%	ungraded
2	0xc60a..fea0	TOO EARLY	2.0M	10.3%	ungraded
3	0xd2a7..9f7f	TOO EARLY	1.4M	7.2%	ungraded
4	0x95cd..29b8	TOO EARLY	951k	4.9%	ungraded
5	0xfec2..04a5	TOO EARLY	935k	4.8%	ungraded
6	0x996d..aff1	TOO EARLY	918k	4.8%	ungraded
7	0x05d1..f8c4	TOO EARLY	898k	4.7%	ungraded
8	0x0afc..0b38	TOO EARLY	644k	3.3%	ungraded
9	0x487a..2538	TOO EARLY	602k	3.1%	ungraded
10	0x6564..340c	TOO EARLY	418k	2.2%	ungraded
11	0x2488..7238	TOO EARLY	409k	2.1%	ungraded
12	0xdb28..b80a	TOO EARLY	395k	2.0%	ungraded
13	0x8548..e67e	TOO EARLY	376k	2.0%	ungraded
14	0xbd4b..287d	TOO EARLY	365k	1.9%	ungraded
15	0x326c..4205	TOO EARLY	359k	1.9%	ungraded
16	0xbd9e..baa7	TOO EARLY	355k	1.8%	ungraded
17	0x66ca..225a	TOO EARLY	321k	1.7%	ungraded
18	0x20ec..56c0	TOO EARLY	299k	1.5%	ungraded
19	0x4863..e44f	TOO EARLY	269k	1.4%	ungraded
20	0xfe93..9c9d	TOO EARLY	255k	1.3%	ungraded
21	0x840b..946f	TOO EARLY	241k	1.2%	ungraded
22	0xb731..5790	TOO EARLY	239k	1.2%	ungraded
23	0xf659..d48b	TOO EARLY	232k	1.2%	ungraded
24	0xdc86..821a	TOO EARLY	225k	1.2%	ungraded
25	0x6c31..7d98	TOO EARLY	217k	1.1%	ungraded
26	0x2bc1..a7e7	TOO EARLY	216k	1.1%	ungraded
27	0x6573..8efe	TOO EARLY	196k	1.0%	ungraded
28	0xf002..bfb2	TOO EARLY	195k	1.0%	ungraded
29	0x2d51..6f52	TOO EARLY	166k	0.9%	ungraded
30	0xb738..9472	TOO EARLY	159k	0.8%	ungraded
31	0xfee5..5d78	TOO EARLY	154k	0.8%	ungraded
32	0x92d7..6fc6	TOO EARLY	144k	0.7%	ungraded
33	0x1a0d..f351	NO	135k	0.7%	ungraded
34	0xc12f..39ee	TOO EARLY	125k	0.6%	ungraded
35	0x30b2..be50	TOO EARLY	123k	0.6%	ungraded
36	0xdf67..2de3	TOO EARLY	121k	0.6%	ungraded
37	0x003a..0577	TOO EARLY	118k	0.6%	ungraded
38	0xf018..4069	TOO EARLY	111k	0.6%	ungraded
39	0x5b7e..78a8	TOO EARLY	103k	0.5%	ungraded
40	0x8b64..96ee	TOO EARLY	95k	0.5%	ungraded
41	0x6391..194a	TOO EARLY	92k	0.5%	ungraded
42	0x53d0..d897	TOO EARLY	82k	0.4%	ungraded
43	0xd4c1..6e2e	TOO EARLY	80k	0.4%	ungraded
44	0x7baa..946a	TOO EARLY	76k	0.4%	ungraded
45	0xa9b0..c344	50/50	75k	0.4%	ungraded
46	0xd431..e9d9	TOO EARLY	75k	0.4%	ungraded
47	0x69d0..a819	TOO EARLY	70k	0.4%	ungraded
48	0x5c2e..d55e	TOO EARLY	69k	0.4%	ungraded
49	0xc9e8..8df5	TOO EARLY	65k	0.3%	ungraded
50	0x1515..490a	TOO EARLY	56k	0.3%	ungraded
51	0x18f7..9222	TOO EARLY	55k	0.3%	ungraded
52	0x4431..9080	TOO EARLY	52k	0.3%	ungraded
53	0xd9f9..7598	TOO EARLY	50k	0.3%	ungraded
54	0xa4ef..a5ea	TOO EARLY	36k	0.2%	ungraded
55	0xa61b..88a5	TOO EARLY	33k	0.2%	ungraded
56	0xa7b9..87d0	TOO EARLY	31k	0.2%	ungraded
57	0x1921..efa9	TOO EARLY	28k	0.1%	ungraded
58	0xa2e5..27f4	YES	28k	0.1%	ungraded
59	0x126d..c78e	TOO EARLY	27k	0.1%	ungraded
60	0xab0c..8b3b	TOO EARLY	26k	0.1%	ungraded
61	0x7b51..f56b	TOO EARLY	25k	0.1%	ungraded
62	0x47a4..368b	TOO EARLY	25k	0.1%	ungraded
63	0x69d0..586c	TOO EARLY	21k	0.1%	ungraded
64	0x4c0d..ff1d	TOO EARLY	18k	0.1%	ungraded
65	0x336b..d88f	TOO EARLY	15k	0.1%	ungraded
66	0x4f49..8da9	TOO EARLY	11k	0.1%	ungraded
67	0x9497..f769	TOO EARLY	11k	0.1%	ungraded
68	0x196f..7ff6	TOO EARLY	10k	0.1%	ungraded
69	0x4ddd..0cb2	TOO EARLY	10k	0.1%	ungraded
70	0xe748..9a11	TOO EARLY	10k	0.1%	ungraded
71	0xe637..9483	TOO EARLY	9k	0.0%	ungraded
72	0x465c..d022	TOO EARLY	9k	0.0%	ungraded
73	0x110f..f6fd	TOO EARLY	9k	0.0%	ungraded
74	0xdb4d..bb4d	TOO EARLY	8k	0.0%	ungraded
75	0x8ce7..0337	TOO EARLY	7k	0.0%	ungraded
76	0x3939..e4ce	TOO EARLY	7k	0.0%	ungraded
77	0x1a46..cbc4	TOO EARLY	6k	0.0%	ungraded
78	0x37c5..6545	TOO EARLY	6k	0.0%	ungraded
79	0xcb8c..9937	TOO EARLY	6k	0.0%	ungraded
80	0x8c48..b938	TOO EARLY	6k	0.0%	ungraded
81	0xea1e..4f9a	TOO EARLY	5k	0.0%	ungraded
82	0x5d54..cc4b	TOO EARLY	5k	0.0%	ungraded
83	0xa31c..6020	TOO EARLY	5k	0.0%	ungraded
84	0x9baf..0a44	TOO EARLY	5k	0.0%	ungraded
85	0x6ee8..0759	NO	5k	0.0%	ungraded
86	0xb483..28ab	TOO EARLY	5k	0.0%	ungraded
87	0x7e36..0c22	TOO EARLY	4k	0.0%	ungraded
88	0xf445..376e	TOO EARLY	4k	0.0%	ungraded
89	0x21a7..bce1	TOO EARLY	4k	0.0%	ungraded
90	0xc4eb..9946	TOO EARLY	4k	0.0%	ungraded
91	0x1cc9..397e	TOO EARLY	3k	0.0%	ungraded
92	0xdf50..ffda	TOO EARLY	3k	0.0%	ungraded
93	0x9928..8cee	TOO EARLY	3k	0.0%	ungraded
94	0x2a82..c9d8	TOO EARLY	3k	0.0%	ungraded
95	0x519e..fb3b	TOO EARLY	3k	0.0%	ungraded
96	0x55e0..c952	TOO EARLY	3k	0.0%	ungraded
97	0x9860..1316	TOO EARLY	2k	0.0%	ungraded
98	0xea8d..558a	TOO EARLY	2k	0.0%	ungraded
99	0x6280..57bb	TOO EARLY	2k	0.0%	ungraded
100	0xde0a..75f5	TOO EARLY	2k	0.0%	ungraded
101	0x1c80..d09a	TOO EARLY	2k	0.0%	ungraded
102	0x449f..d1c7	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
103	0x08bb..2be1	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
104	0xde26..dad7	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
105	0x99bc..2fd9	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
106	0x48c7..0f91	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
107	0x2dcc..f94b	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
108	0xf8e9..6fe8	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
109	0xa851..7438	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
110	0xf33e..db10	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
111	0xbb1f..fba5	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
112	0xb425..1d8e	NO	1k	0.0%	ungraded
113	0xe3b0..1d12	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
114	0xb362..e683	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
115	0x5b01..2ed2	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
116	0xf1de..7990	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
117	0x90b9..2464	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
118	0x7c9c..76ed	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
119	0xa89f..b642	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
120	0x9a47..4246	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
121	0x76cc..8829	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
122	0x7d8a..388c	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
123	0x0fad..ef15	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
124	0x8a74..5d7d	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
125	0x27b0..14d2	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
126	0x49b3..bd78	TOO EARLY	1k	0.0%	ungraded
127	0xcc50..da38	TOO EARLY	988	0.0%	ungraded
128	0x0b02..9fee	TOO EARLY	986	0.0%	ungraded
129	0x9101..dd9f	TOO EARLY	985	0.0%	ungraded
130	0xac88..5757	TOO EARLY	985	0.0%	ungraded
131	0xc84f..747b	TOO EARLY	980	0.0%	ungraded
132	0x06ce..20ea	TOO EARLY	980	0.0%	ungraded
133	0xa21c..1e3a	TOO EARLY	980	0.0%	ungraded
134	0xf5df..d5ae	TOO EARLY	976	0.0%	ungraded
135	0x1306..bc55	TOO EARLY	968	0.0%	ungraded
136	0x2027..50ff	TOO EARLY	962	0.0%	ungraded
137	0x50d2..31ef	TOO EARLY	958	0.0%	ungraded
138	0x074f..9d52	TOO EARLY	949	0.0%	ungraded
139	0x9c1f..0c09	TOO EARLY	847	0.0%	ungraded
140	0xd0d1..494d	TOO EARLY	797	0.0%	ungraded
141	0x6fc5..daf1	TOO EARLY	774	0.0%	ungraded
142	0x2a1b..a08f	TOO EARLY	748	0.0%	ungraded
143	0xe6b5..f1fd	TOO EARLY	746	0.0%	ungraded
144	0x28ec..1675	TOO EARLY	684	0.0%	ungraded
145	0x86cc..273d	TOO EARLY	681	0.0%	ungraded
146	0x95af..26fc	TOO EARLY	676	0.0%	ungraded
147	0x7595..8027	TOO EARLY	649	0.0%	ungraded
148	0x3b9f..c44f	TOO EARLY	640	0.0%	ungraded
149	0xdc20..021d	TOO EARLY	635	0.0%	ungraded
150	0x93a6..ced4	TOO EARLY	621	0.0%	ungraded
151	0x5071..ad7b	TOO EARLY	618	0.0%	ungraded
152	0x5a7c..ee4c	TOO EARLY	617	0.0%	ungraded
153	0x0b5d..4832	TOO EARLY	609	0.0%	ungraded
154	0xd8d7..d24e	TOO EARLY	595	0.0%	ungraded
155	0x104d..e4e9	TOO EARLY	589	0.0%	ungraded
156	0x5ebc..d55d	TOO EARLY	581	0.0%	ungraded
157	0x3e1b..523e	TOO EARLY	579	0.0%	ungraded
158	0x9fdb..0aea	TOO EARLY	578	0.0%	ungraded
159	0x56d7..7226	TOO EARLY	576	0.0%	ungraded
160	0x101a..b9e5	TOO EARLY	573	0.0%	ungraded
161	0x3abe..817d	TOO EARLY	572	0.0%	ungraded
162	0x2b37..83dc	TOO EARLY	571	0.0%	ungraded
163	0xc573..09c1	TOO EARLY	565	0.0%	ungraded
164	0xe5e7..2f19	TOO EARLY	565	0.0%	ungraded
165	0x601f..7eb5	TOO EARLY	564	0.0%	ungraded
166	0x785c..2de9	TOO EARLY	562	0.0%	ungraded
167	0x5689..82b0	TOO EARLY	562	0.0%	ungraded
168	0xd8e4..9d15	TOO EARLY	558	0.0%	ungraded
169	0xcfb3..400e	TOO EARLY	557	0.0%	ungraded
170	0x16d1..597a	TOO EARLY	557	0.0%	ungraded
171	0x87a7..c1b6	TOO EARLY	556	0.0%	ungraded
172	0x0293..f77e	TOO EARLY	555	0.0%	ungraded
173	0x1049..c8e5	TOO EARLY	551	0.0%	ungraded
174	0x6e86..2587	TOO EARLY	549	0.0%	ungraded
175	0x7c45..6af8	YES	548	0.0%	ungraded
176	0xd521..7329	TOO EARLY	548	0.0%	ungraded
177	0x36ce..5bc0	TOO EARLY	547	0.0%	ungraded
178	0xacb4..dd18	TOO EARLY	541	0.0%	ungraded
179	0xb67a..6122	TOO EARLY	539	0.0%	ungraded
180	0x4821..bdcf	TOO EARLY	538	0.0%	ungraded
181	0xa8b8..b984	TOO EARLY	538	0.0%	ungraded
182	0xcb4b..0caa	TOO EARLY	537	0.0%	ungraded
183	0x349e..5168	TOO EARLY	535	0.0%	ungraded
184	0xb538..8b0f	TOO EARLY	532	0.0%	ungraded
185	0xc3ac..9d6b	TOO EARLY	532	0.0%	ungraded
186	0xefbc..e22b	TOO EARLY	532	0.0%	ungraded
187	0x8782..32db	TOO EARLY	531	0.0%	ungraded
188	0x8e56..9e77	TOO EARLY	531	0.0%	ungraded
189	0xf3c1..2329	TOO EARLY	530	0.0%	ungraded
190	0x90da..1a73	TOO EARLY	530	0.0%	ungraded
191	0x24eb..a05a	TOO EARLY	530	0.0%	ungraded
192	0xbd9d..98eb	TOO EARLY	528	0.0%	ungraded
193	0xf0dc..fe78	TOO EARLY	528	0.0%	ungraded
194	0x3b45..3008	TOO EARLY	527	0.0%	ungraded
195	0x9f9a..03be	TOO EARLY	526	0.0%	ungraded
196	0x73cd..af4d	TOO EARLY	526	0.0%	ungraded
197	0xaef6..7b7c	TOO EARLY	524	0.0%	ungraded
198	0x72b5..3236	TOO EARLY	522	0.0%	ungraded
199	0x34d4..6ab2	TOO EARLY	520	0.0%	ungraded
200	0xc6c3..d292	TOO EARLY	520	0.0%	ungraded
201	0x7a40..be8a	TOO EARLY	519	0.0%	ungraded
202	0x3745..650e	TOO EARLY	518	0.0%	ungraded
203	0x5f4f..39d1	TOO EARLY	518	0.0%	ungraded
204	0xfb1f..a12c	TOO EARLY	518	0.0%	ungraded
205	0x4be8..0604	TOO EARLY	517	0.0%	ungraded
206	0x57cb..0f3e	TOO EARLY	517	0.0%	ungraded
207	0xaa9e..d624	NO	517	0.0%	ungraded
208	0x8bc1..4230	TOO EARLY	517	0.0%	ungraded
209	0x80cc..ca98	TOO EARLY	514	0.0%	ungraded
210	0x5784..a1ee	TOO EARLY	514	0.0%	ungraded
211	0x0939..befb	TOO EARLY	511	0.0%	ungraded
212	0xf3b6..99bf	TOO EARLY	511	0.0%	ungraded
213	0x9e43..b563	TOO EARLY	510	0.0%	ungraded
214	0xe321..d544	TOO EARLY	510	0.0%	ungraded
215	0xf025..c7b1	TOO EARLY	510	0.0%	ungraded
216	0x52b8..31f9	TOO EARLY	510	0.0%	ungraded
217	0x2947..32a5	TOO EARLY	510	0.0%	ungraded
218	0xfb04..110c	TOO EARLY	509	0.0%	ungraded
219	0x3dd7..1345	TOO EARLY	504	0.0%	ungraded
220	0xf766..392f	TOO EARLY	504	0.0%	ungraded
221	0x370f..4f3a	TOO EARLY	472	0.0%	ungraded
222	0x5a94..97ee	TOO EARLY	410	0.0%	ungraded
223	0x4fe9..defe	TOO EARLY	178	0.0%	ungraded
224	0x9651..a2b7	TOO EARLY	103	0.0%	ungraded
225	0xed3a..54fa	TOO EARLY	96	0.0%	ungraded
226	0x122b..8aee	TOO EARLY	94	0.0%	ungraded
227	0xff07..b8cd	TOO EARLY	64	0.0%	ungraded
228	0x42d1..1ea2	TOO EARLY	33	0.0%	ungraded
229	0x88f8..369f	TOO EARLY	24	0.0%	ungraded
230	0x975d..4f71	YES	15	0.0%	ungraded
231	0x8a20..4be2	NO	10	0.0%	ungraded
232	0xfec8..2269	NO	4	0.0%	ungraded
233	0xb7a0..4c0b	TOO EARLY	3	0.0%	ungraded
234	0x03c2..336d	NO	1	0.0%	ungraded
235	0x1ab8..64f4	TOO EARLY	0	0.0%	ungraded